Economic Conditions Early in Life and Individual Mortality.

This paper analyzes the effect of economic conditions early in life on the individual mortality rate later in life, using business cycle conditions early in life as an exogenous indicator. We have individual data records from Dutch registers of birth, marriage, and death certificates, covering an observation window of unprecedented size (1812-2000). These are merged with historical data on macro-economic and health indicators. We correct for secular changes over time and other mortality determinants. We nonparametrically compare those born in a recession to those born in the preceding boom, and we estimate duration models where the individual’s mortality rate depends on current conditions, conditions early in life, age, individual characteristics, including individual socio-economic indicators, and interaction terms. The results indicate a significant negative effect of economic conditions early in life on individual mortality rates at all ages. Address for correspondence: Gerard J. van den Berg, Department of Economics, Free University, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected].